Welcome To The New Cold War

by James Gruber on February 15, 2013

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{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

Mark R February 18, 2013 at 12:17 am

In case there is a conflict coming in Asia, we can minimize our involvement in it. If China has beef with Japan, we don’t need to get embroiled in the middle. Let Japan build up their defenses or whatever they have to do, seek alliances among her neighbors such as India, who are also concerned about China. We should withdraw our military bases from Japan – there is little strategic value in them, they only create a risk of pulling us into the middle of the conflict. China seems to be making enemies left and right these days. Let all those countries form an alliance, and they will be perfectly capable of making a stand against China; but if we act like we’re assuming responsibility for their safety, it will only give them an excuse to be lax and unprepared.

James Gruber February 15, 2013 at 9:08 pm

Bill,

I think we’re a long way from any actual conflict between the U.S. and China, but your conclusions about likely winners seems about right. Not sure what would happen to the yuan though.

A Cold War is likely to prove a long-term affair with many potential spot fires such as the current China-Japan dispute. There is one sure winner that I didn’t mention in the newsletter: the military in the U.S. and China. Their funding needs will be taken care of and then some.

Bill Foord February 15, 2013 at 5:41 pm

what would America do if it felt threatened?. it might cause a mass panic in the markets. who would run toe the yuan?, a currency of a totalitarian state?. in a mass panic in the markets, i reckon the us dollar and gold would rise and people would dump Chinese anything. they have to become a free market for many years for people to trust them.

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